Predictions for a Very IT Future

Monday, June 2, 2008

I just read Gartner's Gartner Predicts 2007 report and even though it is based upon 2006 data, it has some interesting insights.

1. Operating System

Gartner predicts, "The Windows operating system will get more frequent yet smaller updates in the future". They also predict that Vista is the last major release of an OS from Microsoft.

I will make my own prediction: if Apple were to make a serious effort to develop business-oriented products, they would own the market. I am running Vista and I swear the boot time is longer than MS-DOS 3.1, despite the dramatic increase in hardware performance since 1984. At least back then, I did not have to worry to the same extent about viruses and all of that other nasty stuff. Unfortunately for us, I don't see a Mac ruggedized tablet anytime soon, so we will be stuck with MS Windows for the foreseeable future.

2. Outsourcing

Gartner predicts that the big boys of outsourcing vendors would be in trouble with fewer big outsourcing contracts and a greater focus on "selective" outsourcing instead of wholesale outsourcing.

I think this is a serious issue for those running IT in EMS and from talking to a few of you, I know it is on your minds as well. On one hand, outsourcing means you get a cheaper rate than if you staffed and ran the function internally. With tight budgets, freeing up extra cash is very important. On the other hand, you become a cog in a much bigger wheel and you lose priority. Since you do not control staff directly when you outsource, you can no longer make a quick judgment call to focus on getting a particular report done instead of doing server maintenance.

One way around this might be to investigate our "multi-agency" (MA) solution. With a MA implementation, a number of agencies can band together and share the costs of running an ePCR solution. That is what the folks in Indianapolis have done. I hope to get a case study completed with them in the near future with the details of their project. Meanwhile, if you would like to know more about MA, drop me a note.

3. IT Service Providers

Gartner predicts there will not be an explosion of IT service providers from Asia any time soon. They are thinking that there is not yet the critical mass of worldly experience in the region to support the growth necessary.

The implication that I see is that the source for innovation for EMS software will continue to be homegrown. Whew! Anyway, we at Medusa remain committed to developing the best ePCR software in the world, even if we do not speak Mandarin.

4. Community Marketing and Blogs

Gartner predicts the slowing growth of blogs. Even though there are 56 million blogs (as at October 2006), Gartner says that the lifespan is only three months (and declining). They also claim that Facebook and MySpace lost visitors around the same time.

Despite this, I think many of you should (if you haven't already) published a blog for paramedics and make sure you troll MySpace and Facebook to ensure your agency is well represented in cyberspace. Given what many of you are telling me about the shortage of paramedics, the war for talent will be fought on-line as much as anywhere.

This also ties in tightly with Gartner's prediction that "compliance" (or good corporate governance) will continue to grow in importance. The last thing you want is one of your medics posting attention-grabbing articles on a blog that result in massive negative publicity for your agency.

5. Security

Gartner predicts, "By the end of 2007, 75% of enterprises will be infected with undetected, financially motivated, targeted malware that evaded their traditional perimeter and host defenses".

This is truly scary. Even though we have the best security out there (Craig will be publishing a white paper shortly outlining what we do for security), the bad guys always seem to dream up new ways to do evil. We are partnering with the Telecom Applications Research Alliance (TARA) with their "InTARA" project to research and develop new IT security protocols. I'm confident that the bright lights at TARA will have a few good surprises in store for us and we will keep you all up to date on their progress.

6. Client Computing

Gartner predicts, "By 2010, the average total cost of ownership (TCO) of new PCs will fall by 50%."

I think the benefits of this will greatly affect the use of field software in EMS. It will free up cash that you can use on strategic software, such as major incident-mass casualty. It also means that IT as a % of your overall budget should drop.

7. Mobile and Wireless

Gartner predicts, "By 2010, 60% of the worldwide cellular population will be trackable via an emerging "follow-me Internet."

We pretty much have this now in EMS with vehicle location GPS systems and the tablets running ePCR. The implications of this technology going mass market is that it will get even cheaper for us in EMS and that new technologies, such as RFID / inventory management, should start to appear.

8. Networking

Gartner predicts, "Through 2011, enterprises will waste $100 billion buying the wrong networking technologies and services."

Ouch. Unfortunately, they are probably right. One way to reduce networking expense is through tools such as MobileAware. This tool will auto detect networks and route your traffic depending upon a set of rules that can, for example, minimize expense.

9. Data Centers

Gartner predicts, "By 2008, nearly 50% of data centers worldwide will lack the necessary power and cooling capacity to support high-density equipment."

Well it is now 2008 and I don't think their numbers were bang on. I do agree with their line of thinking though. I know we have had cooling and power issues in our own server room and if we didn't install VMLabs' VMWare, we likely would have had to outsource out server room. I'm sure many of you have also run into these problems and while VMWare may be not be a solution for you, running a multi-agency server room to spread the costs of cooling and power (in addition to all of the other overhead costs) might be quite a help.

You can get your own copy of the Gartner Predicts 2007 report here

Scott
CEO